V-Lab
Marketingforce Management Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
94.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
94.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
94.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1382 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8931 | 1.58 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 18.8939 | 2.65*** |
| γ2 | -31.4176 | -3.52*** |
| γ3 | 17.3638 | 3.74*** |
| γ4 | -3.3592 | -0.60 |
| γ5 | -3.2410 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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