V-Lab
Ilkka Oyj Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.10%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
23.12%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
24.31%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0849 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 7.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6092 | 10.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2067 | 3.42*** |
| γ2 | -0.3920 | -4.17*** |
| γ3 | 0.3217 | 4.06*** |
| γ4 | -0.1643 | -1.95* |
| γ5 | 0.0082 | 0.11 |
| γ6 | 0.0682 | 1.02 |
| γ7 | -0.0875 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 0.0432 | 0.62 |
| γ9 | 0.0014 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.778
Half-life:
3 days
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