V-Lab
Ilkka Oyj GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.30%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
23.73%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
25.14%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 53% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0900 | 13.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | 13.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9168 | 264.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0251 | -3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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