Ilkka Oyj MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
26.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
26.77%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
26.91%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0113 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0265 | 17.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9708 | 503.52*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
256 days
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