Monotaro Co Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.35%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
37.67%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
41.55%
increased by 4.66%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3963 | 8.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1831 | 29.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7797 | 177.04*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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