V-Lab
Monotaro Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.79%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Week
41.14%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
41.47%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 108% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0754 | 9.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5152 | 21.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0811 | 6.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0760 | 0.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0219 | 1.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9694 | 30.90*** |
Persistence:
0.631
Half-life:
2 days
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