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V-Lab

Monotaro Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

39.79%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

41.14%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Month

41.47%

decreased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Monotaro Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 108% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0754
9.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5152
21.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0811
6.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0760
0.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0219
1.02
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9694
30.90***

Persistence:

0.631

Half-life:

2 days