Skip to main content
V-Lab

Monotaro Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

37.12%

decreased by 1.87%

1 Week

38.22%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

41.41%

increased by 2.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Monotaro Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.5688
7.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0739
16.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9581
166.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6944
5.31***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days