V-Lab
Monotaro Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.12%
decreased by 1.87%
1 Week
38.22%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
41.41%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.5688 | 7.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 16.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9581 | 166.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6944 | 5.31*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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