Katakura Chikkarin Co Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
41.55%
increased by 10.20%
1 Week
41.16%
increased by 9.81%
1 Month
39.92%
increased by 8.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
μ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1853 | 16.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1920 | 35.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7714 | 195.92*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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