V-Lab
Katakura Chikkarin Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.88%
increased by 5.70%
1 Week
43.83%
increased by 5.65%
1 Month
43.63%
increased by 5.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7830 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 49.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 323.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4078 | 25.27*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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