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V-Lab

Katakura Chikkarin Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

43.88%

increased by 5.70%

1 Week

43.83%

increased by 5.65%

1 Month

43.63%

increased by 5.45%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Katakura Chikkarin Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.7830
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0877
49.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
323.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4078
25.27***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days