V-Lab
Katakura Chikkarin Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.11%
increased by 8.87%
1 Week
42.25%
increased by 6.01%
1 Month
38.05%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1243 | 15.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4279 | 26.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0719 | 5.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7543 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7858 | 3.23*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0659 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.588
Half-life:
1 days
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