Ilkka Oyj AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
23.76%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
24.14%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
25.41%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.23) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0884 | 14.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0593 | 28.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9165 | 313.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2282 | -2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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