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V-Lab

Ilkka Oyj AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

23.76%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

24.14%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

25.41%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ilkka Oyj AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 6, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.23) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0884
14.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
28.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9165
313.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2282
-2.96***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days