XtalPi Holdings Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
60.58%
decreased by 3.01%
1 Week
70.68%
increased by 7.09%
1 Month
85.70%
increased by 22.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.73) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8978 | 15.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3110 | 16.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5490 | 36.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7337 | 3.76*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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