XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
95.49%
increased by 21.73%
1 Week
94.37%
increased by 20.61%
1 Month
91.66%
increased by 17.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 30.7343 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9162 | 34.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9275 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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