V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
62.05%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
66.61%
increased by 5.30%
1 Month
76.34%
increased by 15.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 30.1557 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1417 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9148 | 33.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8466 | 3.17*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
Other XtalPi Holdings Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities