V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
55.77%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Week
57.21%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
60.21%
increased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9038 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1591 | 3.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7396 | 10.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -1.4950 | -1.56 |
| γ2 | 2.0964 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
6 days
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