V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
59.01%
increased by 2.58%
1 Week
59.75%
increased by 3.32%
1 Month
61.30%
increased by 4.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9145 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1579 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7410 | 10.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -1.3992 | -1.55 |
| γ2 | 1.9701 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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