V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
84.25%
decreased by 5.11%
1 Week
81.53%
decreased by 7.83%
1 Month
74.91%
decreased by 14.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9419 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1631 | 3.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7461 | 11.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -1.2510 | -1.41 |
| γ2 | 1.7590 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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