V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
59.13%
1 Week
60.18%
1 Month
61.77%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 12.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8723 | 106.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0799 | -12.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.6889 | 0.30 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4614 | 0.28 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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