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V-Lab

XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

61.90%

increased by 1.86%

1 Week

61.99%

increased by 1.95%

1 Month

61.91%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0766
11.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8734
94.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0766
-11.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.2891
1.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1460
4.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4827
1.67*

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

7 days