Elsaeed Contracting & Real Estate Investment Co SCCD AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
42.83%
increased by 0.53%
1 Week
42.92%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
43.24%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1998 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0512 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0221 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9718 | 330.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5791 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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