Casio Computer Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
30.08%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
30.46%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
31.67%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.73) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1240 | 12.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 32.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8949 | 277.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7256 | 12.63*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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