V-Lab
Casio Computer Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
27.50%
increased by 2.35%
1 Week
27.92%
increased by 2.77%
1 Month
28.98%
increased by 3.83%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0573 | 7.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 7.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8422 | 43.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0447 | -1.45 |
| γ2 | 0.1376 | 3.10*** |
| γ3 | -0.1881 | -6.27*** |
| γ4 | 0.1796 | 4.88*** |
| γ5 | -0.1568 | -2.92*** |
| γ6 | 0.1033 | 1.82* |
| γ7 | -0.0351 | -0.72 |
| γ8 | 0.0010 | 0.02 |
| γ9 | 0.0081 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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