Dae Won Chemical Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
78.28%
decreased by 10.11%
1 Week
79.05%
decreased by 9.34%
1 Month
81.67%
decreased by 6.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 1997 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.14) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7239 | 23.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2242 | 42.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7558 | 162.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1434 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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