V-Lab
Dae Won Chemical Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
49.07%
increased by 0.62%
1 Week
47.57%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
43.83%
decreased by 4.62%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5950 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2637 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6503 | 22.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1107 | 1.20 |
| γ2 | -0.1195 | -0.91 |
| γ3 | 0.0958 | 1.02 |
| γ4 | -0.2442 | -2.28** |
| γ5 | 0.3050 | 2.87*** |
| γ6 | -0.2758 | -2.63*** |
| γ7 | 0.2348 | 2.43** |
| γ8 | -0.0938 | -0.82 |
| γ9 | -0.1488 | -1.16 |
| γ10 | 0.2231 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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