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V-Lab

Mercury NZ Limited AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

33.72%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

34.82%

increased by 0.55%

1 Month

37.57%

increased by 3.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercury NZ Limited AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2013 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4606
17.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1250
31.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8082
121.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1098
1.34

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days