Mercury NZ Limited AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
33.72%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
34.82%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
37.57%
increased by 3.30%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2013 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4606 | 17.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 31.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8082 | 121.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1098 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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