V-Lab
Mercury NZ Limited GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
42.95%
decreased by 2.30%
1 Week
42.84%
decreased by 2.41%
1 Month
42.52%
decreased by 2.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3342 | 15.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0986 | 12.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8492 | 149.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0077 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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