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V-Lab

Mercury NZ Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

34.42%

decreased by 2.79%

1 Week

36.77%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

37.40%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercury NZ Limited MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2206
21.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2075
4.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0227
1.52
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5930
0.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6141
0.20
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1608
0.04

Persistence:

0.439

Half-life:

1 days