V-Lab
Mercury NZ Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
34.42%
decreased by 2.79%
1 Week
36.77%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
37.40%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2206 | 21.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2075 | 4.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0227 | 1.52 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5930 | 0.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6141 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1608 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.439
Half-life:
1 days
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