V-Lab
Mercury NZ Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.36%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Week
35.15%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
36.21%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6328 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2334 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2016 | 2.13** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1833 | 1.03 |
| γ2 | -0.4683 | -1.82* |
| γ3 | 0.6241 | 4.06*** |
| γ4 | -0.6606 | -5.33*** |
| γ5 | 0.4698 | 3.97*** |
| γ6 | -0.2483 | -2.32** |
| γ7 | 0.1631 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
0.435
Half-life:
1 days
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