V-Lab
Mercury NZ Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.09%
decreased by 2.60%
1 Week
42.98%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Month
42.67%
decreased by 3.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.8938 | 9.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0843 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9621 | 230.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3221 | 4.09*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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