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V-Lab

Mercury NZ Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

43.09%

decreased by 2.60%

1 Week

42.98%

decreased by 2.71%

1 Month

42.67%

decreased by 3.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercury NZ Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.8938
9.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0843
14.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9621
230.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3221
4.09***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days