Tivoli A/S AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.36%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
14.37%
increased by 1.17%
1 Month
17.44%
increased by 4.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.08) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0712 | 26.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1697 | 51.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8087 | 270.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0833 | 3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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