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V-Lab

Tivoli A/S AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.36%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

14.37%

increased by 1.17%

1 Month

17.44%

increased by 4.24%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tivoli A/S AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.08) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0712
26.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1697
51.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8087
270.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0833
3.13***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days