V-Lab
Tivoli A/S GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.81%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
14.74%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
17.49%
increased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7013 | 8.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1272 | 43.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 316.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1101 | 20.51*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities