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V-Lab

Tivoli A/S GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.81%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

14.74%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

17.49%

increased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tivoli A/S GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7013
8.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1272
43.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9722
316.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1101
20.51***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days