V-Lab
Tivoli A/S Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
11.09%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
11.84%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
13.76%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3226 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1678 | 11.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7791 | 43.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0144 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0440 | -0.94 |
| γ3 | 0.0638 | 1.94* |
| γ4 | -0.0771 | -2.51** |
| γ5 | 0.1006 | 3.31*** |
| γ6 | -0.1027 | -4.35*** |
| γ7 | 0.0619 | 4.65*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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