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V-Lab

Tivoli A/S Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

11.09%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

11.84%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

13.76%

increased by 2.25%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tivoli A/S S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3226
4.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1678
11.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7791
43.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0144
0.46
γ2-0.0440
-0.94
γ30.0638
1.94*
γ4-0.0771
-2.51**
γ50.1006
3.31***
γ6-0.1027
-4.35***
γ70.0619
4.65***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days