Warsaw Stock Exchange AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.95%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
24.03%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Month
24.16%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.21) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3587 | 17.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1133 | 23.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7307 | 67.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2136 | 4.02*** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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