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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.95%

decreased by 1.70%

1 Week

24.03%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Month

24.16%

decreased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.21) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3587
17.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1133
23.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7307
67.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2136
4.02***

Persistence:

0.844

Half-life:

4 days