V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
30.07%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
28.85%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Month
26.47%
decreased by 4.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9946 | 12.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1039 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7624 | 17.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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