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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

132.02%

increased by 60.39%

1 Week

100.32%

increased by 28.69%

1 Month

57.32%

decreased by 14.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7500
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4660
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7051

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-