V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.20%
increased by 1.88%
1 Week
30.67%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
29.16%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6836 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0807 | 11.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9416 | 76.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3715 | 6.54*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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