Urbana Corp MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
40.49%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Week
41.18%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
43.73%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1560 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0805 | 20.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9128 | 179.10*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
Other MEM Analyses on International Equities