V-Lab
SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
43.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
43.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3984 | 2.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8549 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.4347 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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