SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.51%
1 Week
21,466,422,636,294.10%
1 Month
1,255,240,056,722,219,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 30.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.11 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -30.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1520 | 3.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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