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V-Lab

SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

9.52%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

295.32%

increased by 285.55%

1 Month

2,581,282,704.39%

increased by 2,581,282,694.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0468
26.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9716
991.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0468
-32.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0182
0.88
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.26

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days