V-Lab
SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
9.52%
1 Week
295.32%
1 Month
2,581,282,704.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0468 | 26.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9716 | 991.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0468 | -32.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0182 | 0.88 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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