V-Lab
SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
45.90%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
49.97%
increased by 3.11%
1 Month
51.64%
increased by 4.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4074 | 2.06** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 763.93*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
0.448
Half-life:
1 days
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