Addcn Technology Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.25%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
15.44%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
16.18%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 3, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 620 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0123 | 6.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 12.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9481 | 326.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0347 | -1.09 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9361 | 22.27*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
620 days
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