V-Lab
Addcn Technology Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.98%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
14.44%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
14.89%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 3, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7503 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1621 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5723 | 5.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5024 | -1.50 |
| γ2 | 0.3554 | 0.73 |
| γ3 | 0.4577 | 1.53 |
| γ4 | -0.8518 | -2.70*** |
| γ5 | 1.0927 | 3.21*** |
| γ6 | -0.7888 | -3.02*** |
| γ7 | -0.0043 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | 0.7903 | 3.50*** |
| γ9 | -0.7894 | -4.74*** |
Persistence:
0.734
Half-life:
2 days
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