V-Lab
Addcn Technology Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
109.73%
decreased by 5.52%
1 Week
111.58%
decreased by 3.67%
1 Month
118.43%
increased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 3, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 199.2588 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 103.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9946 | 1,152.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0111 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
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