Lens Technology Co.,Ltd. APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
77.75%
decreased by 5.19%
1 Week
76.65%
decreased by 6.29%
1 Month
73.09%
decreased by 9.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2015 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1527 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 17.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9044 | 159.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0374 | -1.03 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1814 | 8.06*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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