Cic Holdings Plc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.05%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
30.92%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
34.92%
increased by 5.35%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 2.62 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8412 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1041 | 10.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7877 | 68.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0214 | -1.05 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.6193 | 16.75*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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