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V-Lab

Cic Holdings Plc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

29.05%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

30.92%

increased by 1.35%

1 Month

34.92%

increased by 5.35%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cic Holdings Plc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 2.62 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8412
6.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1041
10.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7877
68.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0214
-1.05
δ

power

Transformation power

2.6193
16.75***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days