Skip to main content
V-Lab

Cic Holdings Plc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

30.83%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

32.58%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

36.59%

increased by 4.68%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cic Holdings Plc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.39) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5021
11.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1200
16.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8049
61.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3882
-4.03***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days