V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.83%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
32.58%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
36.59%
increased by 4.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.39) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5021 | 11.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1200 | 16.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8049 | 61.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3882 | -4.03*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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