V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.42%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
30.67%
increased by 1.68%
1 Month
34.35%
increased by 5.36%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1693 | 6.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1249 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7375 | 11.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2745 | 1.66* |
| γ2 | -0.4171 | -1.53 |
| γ3 | 0.3181 | 1.36 |
| γ4 | -0.3813 | -1.87* |
| γ5 | 0.3900 | 1.61 |
| γ6 | -0.2752 | -0.88 |
| γ7 | 0.2654 | 0.89 |
| γ8 | -0.6017 | -2.35** |
| γ9 | 0.7596 | 3.70*** |
| γ10 | -0.4025 | -2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
Other Cic Holdings Plc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities