V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.48%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Week
28.40%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
30.30%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0571 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 4.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7817 | 14.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0590 | 1.17 |
| γ2 | -0.0967 | -1.30 |
| γ3 | 0.1017 | 2.06** |
| γ4 | -0.1556 | -3.15*** |
| γ5 | 0.1367 | 3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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