V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.09%
1 Week
28.41%
1 Month
29.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 167% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2413 | 15.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4765 | 13.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1510 | -7.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7496 | 0.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2661 | 0.56 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6165 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.642
Half-life:
2 days
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