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V-Lab

Cic Holdings Plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

26.09%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

28.41%

increased by 1.26%

1 Month

29.45%

increased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Cic Holdings Plc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 167% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2413
15.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4765
13.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1510
-7.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7496
0.53
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2661
0.56
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6165
0.88

Persistence:

0.642

Half-life:

2 days