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V-Lab

Cic Holdings Plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

29.06%

decreased by 3.10%

1 Week

30.43%

decreased by 1.73%

1 Month

31.31%

decreased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Cic Holdings Plc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 167% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2415
15.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4782
12.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1512
-7.62***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7375
0.53
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2584
0.56
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6264
0.92

Persistence:

0.644

Half-life:

2 days