V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
176.32%
decreased by 16.55%
1 Week
183.67%
decreased by 9.20%
1 Month
206.90%
increased by 14.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 350.9473 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 39.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9764 | 107.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0101 | 1,693.46*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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