V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
171.61%
decreased by 17.19%
1 Week
177.05%
decreased by 11.75%
1 Month
194.54%
increased by 5.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 277.9415 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 38.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9760 | 105.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0128 | 1,328.56*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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