V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
222.14%
decreased by 22.81%
1 Week
228.21%
decreased by 16.74%
1 Month
247.94%
increased by 2.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 432.9892 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 39.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9766 | 108.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0082 | 2,100.66*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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