V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
35.30%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
37.81%
increased by 1.58%
1 Month
42.18%
increased by 5.95%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0234 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1237 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7506 | 11.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0429 | 0.56 |
| γ2 | -0.0511 | -0.46 |
| γ3 | 0.0074 | 0.10 |
| γ4 | 0.0620 | 0.70 |
| γ5 | -0.2300 | -2.38** |
| γ6 | 0.4038 | 3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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