V-Lab
Cic Holdings Plc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.21%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
31.95%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
36.03%
increased by 4.87%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4861 | 10.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 9.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8138 | 61.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0193 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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