Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
31.50%
1 Week
32.99%
1 Month
38.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 26% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1263 | 13.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 29.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8915 | 238.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0959 | -4.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2093 | 23.13*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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