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V-Lab

Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

31.50%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

32.99%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

38.01%

increased by 5.22%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 26% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1263
13.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
29.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8915
238.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0959
-4.61***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2093
23.13***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days