V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.64%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
30.28%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
35.18%
increased by 5.55%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.1336 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 18.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9713 | 136.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5997 | 8.64*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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