V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.47%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
33.71%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
37.57%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.1022 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 136.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5955 | 8.60*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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