V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
30.32%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
31.78%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
36.20%
increased by 4.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.1294 | 4.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0778 | 18.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 136.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5917 | 8.62*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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