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V-Lab

Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

32.66%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

34.20%

increased by 0.70%

1 Month

37.83%

increased by 4.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 21% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1040
25.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8304
125.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0178
-2.76***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0338
3.28***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0284
6.63***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9683
179.96***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days