V-Lab
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
34.10%
1 Week
35.43%
1 Month
38.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 21% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1043 | 25.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8300 | 124.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0179 | -2.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0338 | 3.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0282 | 6.61*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9686 | 180.91*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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